The boom of the hottest domestic petrochemical ind

The prosperity of the domestic petrochemical industry may reverse in 2009

the prosperity of the domestic petrochemical industry may reverse in 2009

February 18, 2009

[China paint information] the profits of the three major domestic oil companies are expected to fall by 30% in 2008. Insiders pointed out that there was a significant positive correlation between the profitability of petrochemical companies and crude oil prices. The global economic weakness in 2008 led to a decline in energy demand, which led to a sharp decline in international crude oil prices and a decline in the profits of the three major domestic oil companies. Affected by the continued decline in oil prices, the prosperity of the petrochemical industry may reverse in 2009

China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association recently released the 2008 analysis and re Research Report. It is estimated that the profit of the whole industry in 2008 will be 499billion yuan, a decrease of 10% over 2007. Among them, the profit of the three major oil companies will be 222.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.3% over 2007. The ten-year growth of the petrochemical industry will turn downward

ZHENG Zhiguo, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, told Shihua Caixun that from the historical data, the profits of the petrochemical industry and companies are significantly positively related to the crude oil price. International oil prices have fallen by 70% since the second half of 2008, and the profits of upstream exploration of oil and gas companies have declined significantly with oil prices. However, due to the rigidity of exploration costs, it is expected that there is little room for the oil price to fall at the level of $50, and the crude oil price is expected to rebound within months. The oil prices in 2008, 2009 and 2010 are judged as $100, 70 and 73 (1) the experimental pressure value refers to the pressure/barrel at the lowest point at the end of the pipeline. Affected by the fall in oil prices, the business cycle of the petrochemical industry will fall in 2009

according to the report of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association, the main business income of the whole industry in 2008 was 6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.5% The occurrence of the "11.15" catastrophic fire in Shanghai and the fire of the CCTV new site building is largely related to improper construction 14%; The total profit was 466.655 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%; The loss was 15.3%, with a loss of 211.91 billion yuan. Among them, the loss of the oil refining industry was 149.26 billion yuan, while the profit of the same period in 2007 was 10.78 billion yuan

Zheng Zhiguo pointed out that although the prosperity of the petrochemical industry may reverse in 2009, the domestic oil refining industry is expected to achieve a more reasonable profit. Under the new pricing mechanism, although the risk of government regulation still exists, it is unlikely that the oil price will rise extremely. The price of refined oil has the effect of releasing resource value to the greatest extent, hoping to follow the changes of international oil prices. It is estimated that the reasonable gross profit of refining of Sinopec and PetroChina is about 5. 5% USD/barrel, after deducting the processing cost of about $4, the EBIT of barrel of oil is 1 USD/barrel. It is estimated that the total realizable EBIT of Sinopec's refining and sales in 2009 is about 40billion yuan, and that of PetroChina is about 25billion yuan