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The boom of construction machinery industry will c

2022-10-21

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The boom of the construction machinery industry will continue to rebound in the fourth quarter

with the stabilization and recovery of the national economy, the boom of the construction machinery industry has undergone positive changes. In terms of sales, the sales volume of the construction machinery industry from January to August continued to improve year-on-year, and exports showed signs of bottoming out; From the perspective of industry development, favorable factors such as industrial structure adjustment, continuous promotion of technological innovation and rapid growth of domestic investment will become important factors for the continued recovery of the construction machinery industry in the fourth quarter

according to statistics, from January to August, the cumulative sales of major products in the construction machinery industry are as follows: 17826 truck cranes, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year; 60856 hydraulic excavators, flat year-on-year; 5420 bulldozers, down 15.8%; 9317 loaders, down 29.1%; 83372 forklifts, a year-on-year decrease of 32.6%

in terms of exports, the import volume of construction machinery from January to July was US $2.77 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%; The export volume was US $4.37 billion, a decrease of 43.1%. The decline of the whole machine export is greater than that of the whole export

we believe that the construction machinery industry will continue to improve in the fourth quarter, mainly considering the following factors

first, structural adjustment is constantly advancing. At present, China has begun to pay attention to the energy conservation and emission reduction of construction machinery engines, the direction of technological development tends to be environmental protection and humanization, and the pace of industrial upgrading of the construction machinery industry has accelerated. The engines of road driven construction machinery such as truck cranes and pump trucks have all met the national III emission standard; However, the emission standards of engines of non road mobile machinery (excavators, loaders, bulldozers, rollers, etc.) have not yet been in line with international standards. Under the current technical conditions, China can transplant the emission control technology of road vehicles to non road machinery

the expansion direction of new construction machinery products mainly focuses on three aspects: the number of stolen products is also much larger than that of large-scale, small-scale and new functions. Large equipment mainly meets the needs of large-scale project construction progress; Small equipment is mainly used in municipal construction, maintenance and other fields; With the change of construction methods, engineering machinery products with new functions have been put into use on a large scale. New products emerge in endlessly, which will meet the market demand to a greater extent. In addition, the design of construction machinery is more humanized, and mainstream products pay more attention to maneuverability, safety, comfort and aesthetic appearance

Second, the investment maintains rapid growth. In the first eight months of this year, the demand for construction machinery was stronger at home than abroad, which was closely related to the high growth of domestic fixed asset investment. From January to August this year, the growth rate of urban fixed asset investment in China was 33%. We believe that infrastructure investment remained at a high growth rate in the fourth quarter. The investment scale of Railway Passenger Dedicated Lines started in the second half of 2009 reached 1trillion yuan, much higher than that in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first half of 2009 (about 650billion yuan), which means that railway investment will continue to grow high in the fourth quarter

III. export orders are expected to rebound. More than 70% of China's construction machinery is exported to developing countries, so the economic and investment situation of developing countries has a great impact on exports. At present, the economic situation of some developing countries is improving. Some domestic enterprises have reflected that the demand intention of overseas customers has begun to increase, so we are optimistic that export orders may rebound in late November

IV. consolidation of low steel prices helps stabilize profitability. The direct cost of steel products accounts for 20% - 30% of the cost of construction machinery products. The change of the specific investment of Huafeng spandex in steel prices also affects the price of purchased parts such as diesel engines. Therefore, the low price of steel, especially the medium and heavy plate, helps to improve the profitability of construction machinery enterprises. At present, the average price of medium and heavy plate is more than 30% lower than that in 2008. As the overcapacity situation in the steel industry has not changed, we expect that the steel price will not rise significantly in the fourth quarter, which has little impact on the cost of construction machinery

according to the current development situation of the industry, we believe that the overall demand for domestic construction machinery in the fourth quarter will not decline significantly, and may remain close to the level in the third quarter